PERAMALAN PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN BERAS PADA ERA OTONOMI DAERAH DI KABUPATEN SUKOHARJO

Nurjayanti, Eka Dewi (2011) PERAMALAN PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN BERAS PADA ERA OTONOMI DAERAH DI KABUPATEN SUKOHARJO. Masters thesis, universitas sebelas maret.

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    Abstract

    The purpose of this research is to know the dynamics of suppling and demanding rice in era before and after regional autonomy in Sukoharjo Regency and to analyzed forecast of them in Sukoharjo Regency on 2011 – 2015. The basic method applied in this research is analytical descriptive method. The research object is taken purposively, that is Sukoharjo Regency. The method of analysis data in this research is (1) Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method with fourth steps, include identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting; (2) Chow Breakpoint Test; and (3) simultaneous equation method. The result got from this research is the annual supply rice data have a fluctuation pattern with increase trend. It is not stationary and become stationary in first differencing. The result of parameter estimation judged that tentative model for the annual supply rice is ARIMA (0,1,1). The result of diagnostic checking judged that the best ARIMA model is ARIMA (0,1,1) with RMSE value is 5.186,376; R2 value is 0,850311; F-statistic value is 79,52704; and parameter of MA is significant because probabilistic value is less than 0,05. The annual demand rice data have an increased and linear trend. It is not stationary and become stationary in second differencing. The result of parameter estimation judged that tentative model for the annual demand rice is ARIMA (1,2,1). After diagnostic checking test, the best ARIMA model for the annual demand rice is ARIMA (2,2,1) with RMSE value is 677,4671; R2 value is 0,947327; F-statistic value is 53,95478; and parameter of MA(1) and AR(1) are significant because the value of probability is less than 0,05. Chow Breakpoint Test showed that in 2000 was a period which affected annual supply and demand of rice, with F-statistic value is 3,033932 and this probability is significant. In simultaneous equation model, estimation result showed that the model had value of R2 is 0,644626; value of F-statistic is 5,462146; value of RMSE is 8.823,807; and probabilistic value of F-statistic is significant. Regional autonomy not affected in supply and demand of rice. It is because rule of regional government less than main government in capital country. The result of forecasting annual supply and demand of rice in 2011 – 2015 showed annual demand rice tended increase while annual supply decreased. The suggestion based on this research is to increase the variety of rice seed through find out the best rice seed that resistant from plant disease; to change plant system for protect the element and quality of soil; to use together and massive system for eliminate plant disease, and to increase budget allocation for agriculture communication and also assistance for rice farmer if the farmer got any problems about rice cultivation.

    Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
    Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
    Divisions: Pasca Sarjana > Magister > Agribisnis - S2
    Depositing User: Users 857 not found.
    Date Deposited: 21 Jul 2013 21:45
    Last Modified: 21 Jul 2013 21:45
    URI: https://eprints.uns.ac.id/id/eprint/7567

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