Peramalan kebutuhan kertas Roll CD PENNA untuk produksi buku BKS pada CV. Mediatama Surakarta

D, NANDA PUTRI (2016) Peramalan kebutuhan kertas Roll CD PENNA untuk produksi buku BKS pada CV. Mediatama Surakarta. Other thesis, Universitas Sebelas Maret.

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    Abstract

    ABSTRACT FORECASTING DEMAND OF CD PAPER ROLL FOR PRODUCTION BKS ON CV. MEDIATAMA SURAKARTA Nanda Putri Damayanti F3513050 Forecasting demand of raw materials is an important activity that needs to be done in a variety of business activities or businesses that use historical data. The aim of this study as a basis penenetuan needs Penna CD roll paper to produce books on CV BKS. MEDIATAMA located on Jl. Adisumarmo 331, Klodran, Surakarta Forecasting needs Penna CD Paper Roll using Time Series Forecasting Method (Time Series) which consists of a Moving Average, Weight Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing. Forecasting made an estimation using historical data of the company in 2015. Moving Average Method (3 and 6 Monthly) obtain kasilkesaahan forecasting (error) the smallest is 3 Month Moving Average forecasting 322 roll, with an error rate of MAD 92.25 and for MSE 14451.48. Methods Weight Moving Average (3 and 6 Monthly) obtain kasilkesaahan forecasting (error) the smallest is the Weight Moving Average Monthly forecasting 6 348.42 roll, with an error rate for MSE MAD 94.45 and 17238.28. Exponential Smoothing method (α = 0.1, α = 0.3 and α = 0.5) obtained the result of errors (error) the smallest is the Exponential Smoothing α = 0.3 to 319.45 forecasting results roll, the error rate for MAD 36988.27 145.74 and for MSE. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that CV. MEDIATAMA better use 3 Month Moving Average method in predicting the need for raw materials, as has the level of error in forecasting the lowest compared to other methods. In the raw materials necessary logistic controlling periodically to meninimalisir shortages of raw materials. Keyword : Forecast, Time Series, Moving Average, Weight Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Square Eror.

    Item Type: Thesis (Other)
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
    H Social Sciences > HG Finance
    Divisions: Fakultas Ekonomi > D3 - Manajemen Bisnis
    Depositing User: Retno Andriani
    Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2016 10:04
    Last Modified: 02 Nov 2016 10:04
    URI: https://eprints.uns.ac.id/id/eprint/28086

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