SIMULASI RISIKO FASE PROCUREMENT PADA PEMBANGUNAN PABRIK AMMONIA DAN UREA KUJANG 1-B

Hartono, Widi and Laksito, Budi (2006) SIMULASI RISIKO FASE PROCUREMENT PADA PEMBANGUNAN PABRIK AMMONIA DAN UREA KUJANG 1-B. MEDIA TEKNIK SIPIL, 6 (1). pp. 46-53. ISSN 1412-0976

[img] PDF - Published Version
Download (212Kb)

    Abstract

    Abstract Risk management is a systematical process of managing an organization's risk exposures to achieve its objectives in a manner consistent with public interest, human safety, environmental factors, and the law. It consists of planning, organizing, leading, coordinating, and controlling activities undertaken with the intent of providing an efficient preloss plan that minimizes the adverse impact of risk on the organization's resources, earnings, and cash flows. This paper proposes to analyze risk on deploying Ammonia and Urea Kujang 1-B plant on Procurement phase using Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo analysis, referred to as "simulation by random sampling", is a quantitative simulation technique used in many different types of decision analysis models. The first step in Monte Carlo risk analysis is defining the capital resources by developing the deterministic model of the estimation. The second step is to identify the uncertainty in the estimation by specifying the possible values of the variables in the estimation with probability ranges (distributions). The third step is to analyze the estimation with simulation. The model is iterated to determine the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes of the model. Keywords: Deterministic Model, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probability, Risk Management

    Item Type: Article
    Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
    Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Sipil
    Depositing User: Users 853 not found.
    Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2013 12:54
    Last Modified: 11 Jul 2013 12:54
    URI: https://eprints.uns.ac.id/id/eprint/1218

    Actions (login required)

    View Item